Gold prices may rise 20% to 30% by year-end

Source: The Star Online

KUALA LUMPUR: Gold prices are expected to rise 20% to 30% with its spot price hitting US$1,100 per ounce by year-end, on expectations of a rebound in the global consumption of commodities and on rising demand for gold amid declining new supplies, according to OSK-UOB Unit Trust Management Bhd.

The current spot price for gold ranges from US$910 to US$920 per ounce.

OSK-UOB Unit Trust chief executive officer Ho Seng Yee noted that the annual production of new gold had been falling since 2001.

“However, gold demand has been increasing through traditional demand for jewellery and new investment demands,” he said during the launch of the OSK-UOB Gold and General Fund yesterday.

Ho reckoned that the increase in demand for commodities, including gold, by emerging economies such as China and India was setting the base for a prolonged commodity bull cycle.

“Although commodity demand has fallen in line with the recent economic weakness, we feel that the low per capita consumption levels in the developing world would provide support for a rebound in global commodity demand,” Ho said.

Singapore-based UOB Asset Management Ltd director of equities Robert John Adair noted that historically, gold had performed well despite different economic scenarios such as inflation or deflation.

“It is also a good hedge against paper currency, which has historically been seen to weaken during times of financial crisis,” he said, adding that the US dollar would likely weaken if unemployment rates in the US continued to rise.

“The value of (US-based) assets is likely to fall if consumers lose their jobs and are not able to service their loans.

"This would weaken the US dollar, which has not lost its value since the start of the financial crisis,” Adair said.

The OSK-UOB Gold and General Fund is a feeder fund that invests at least 95% of its net asset value in United Gold and General Fund, the target fund, which is managed by UOB Asset Management.

“The fund aims to achieve returns on investment mainly in securities of corporations whose business is, or is substantially in, the mining or extraction of gold, silver as well as precious metals besides oil, gas and coal,” Ho said.

In the past, the target fund has provided returns of 14% to 15% per annum on an annualised basis, according to Ho.

The OSK-UOB Gold and General Fund, which has an approved size of 800 million units, is being offered at an initial price of 50 sen per unit.

The offer period is from July 21 to Aug 10 and the initial minimum investment amount is RM1,000.